Trump Says the 'Stock Market Will Go Up,' But Here's What the Prediction Markets Are Betting on

Prediction markets give the S&P 500 a 51.8% chance of reaching 8,000 by year-end, down from 79% peak but still above January's 19%. Despite Trump's optimism about stock market growth despite Iran war, his approval ratings have fallen to 32-34% and Americans now trust Democrats more on economic management.

Why it matters: The S&P 500 has gained 12% year-to-date, reaching a record 7,798.99 in mid-August before settling at 7,666.60 recently.